The latest data informing military pay raises points to one of the smaller hikes this decade.

The June Employment Cost Index (ECI) for wages and salaries in private industry, released last month, stood at 3.5%, one-tenth of a percentage point higher than the March figure but six-tenths lower than the June 2024 number. Congress regularly uses this measurement of employment cost change to set the military pay raise – figures from September’s ECI, which will be released in October, will inform the 2027 military pay hike.

If trends continue, it would mark the lowest raise since 2022 (2.7%). It would come after a 3.8% raise set for 2026, barring an unexpected change in this year’s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) process – both House and Senate NDAA versions use that figure, making it likely to reach the final bill.